Jobs in India -That time of the year!!?

Yesterday, I had a mail from Supriya Kurane from the magazine Outlook Business, "currently working on a trends story, figuring out what is happening in the job market right now. Typically, employees start scouting for "greener pastures" as the fiscal year ends in March and hikes are doled out. What is your take on what will happen this time around withe salary hikes expected to be smaller and also the slowdown in the US? "

It was just after I had my lunch-and time for the 'power nap'! It was too tempting, and so this is what I shot off -instantly:

Traditionally, the year end has been a great time for the job market- with most companies reviewing their growth & hiring plans. Most companies too used to club annual increments and promotions around this time.

1.In a growing economy like India- it is always more juicy to hop jobs- as u can get a 25 50 30% hike-where as an annual increment would only get you half that amount. ( contrast it to US or any developed economy the corresponding figure would be 3-4 % annual increment and 7-10% bonus for jumping -the differential vis-a-vis the risk isn't very attractive!)

But I think things are changing. Corporates have become more innovative- have staggered their increments/ promotions/bonus across the year-and so, there is no real 'season for changing jobs now'! Its a perennial affair.

2.The sub prime and US recession has perhaps affected the IT/ITES and businesses related to that- but really not many companies have admitted to the fact that they are indeed slow pedalling. Personally, I know companies are more choosy now, and while they would close a position within a week earlier, now they don't mind stretching the search and waiting for the 'right guy' to come around. In that context, the velocity has decreased-but the good guys really don't have to be worried.

3.One major factor is that there are a lot of industries growing at this stage-real estate, power, energy, retail, and so those with 'transplant-able 'skills really needn't be satisfied by the modest increases given by their employer- and can look for greener pastures and get better hikes.

4.And today, I guess more professionals have become career conscious and are mobile within India too-thanks to the convenient air connections, there are a lot of double income parents actually working from different towns. Since good educational institutions are also limited in number in major cities, most parents are wary of shifting kids at the end of an academic yr -compared to say, a few yrs back.

5. I think media too plays up the 'feel good ' factor . Feb/Mar are hyped due to the 'placement fever' in the IIMs/ISBs. And when those handful privileged guys are lucky to pull off some obscene figures, what it does..is it increases the 'aspirational desires' of all others who are in regular employment-and start feeling whether their salaries are in sync with reality or now!!I am sure I get a lot of panic calls from premier B School guys..who feel its time for a market correction for their low salaries..and that too spurs the need for a change :-)!

6. This yr one can blame the Sixth pay commission..and the public sector getting 40% hikes and 2 yrs arrears - that should leave the private sector panting for more !!

Almost on the rebound, Supriya did acknowledge ' was very informative read and pretty much in line". It set me thinking-is there some trend I missed out? Is it because I am focused with middle and senior management guys, and partly working on mandates on a 'retained search' mode by some of my clients?

Am I being myopic?

I shall be glad to hear the different perspectives- lest I have taken a generalist view. And I can't wait till Supriya finally publishes her article!! May I request you to reach me offline and update me?